Ride or wait, 2:04 a.m.

A game by Vynce Digital. Not Uber's app, prices or data.

The round-number cliff

Keith Chen, then Uber's head of economic research, on NPR's Hidden Brain ("This Is Your Brain On Uber"):

"...when you go from 1.9 to 2.0, you see six times larger of a drop in demand than you saw from going from 1.8 to 1.9."Keith Chen

"...people take more rides at 2.1 than they did at 2."Keith Chen

"Somebody just made that up." ... "there must be some smart algorithm in the background"Chen on how riders read 2x vs 2.1x

"...below 5 percent battery ... people start saying, well, I better get home ... And we absolutely don't use that to kind of like push you a higher surge price"Chen on low battery

One interview, Uber's own data as described by its economist in 2016, not a peer-reviewed study; Uber's pricing has changed since. Full transcript: npr.org/transcripts/478266839.

Raising prices? Don't round. Show the math.

1. Never announce a round markup."+10%" or "+$20" reads as a number somebody chose. Riders treated 2.0x that way. On eBay, round asking prices draw lower offers (Backus, Blake & Tadelis, NBER w21285).
2. Show what went up, in exact amounts.Materials, fuel, wages, rent: name each line with its real number. The total is then a result, not a choice.
3. Only real math.Precise numbers persuade because they look computed. If yours are invented, the first customer who asks will find out. Keep the receipts.
4. Say what doesn't change.Same slot, same team, same guarantee. A rise next to "what you still get" reads fair.
5. Tell people before the bill does.A dated note one billing cycle ahead beats a surprise on the invoice.

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